49ers

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks: AccuScore projections

AccuScore has the Seattle Seahawks as slight 54.4 percent favorites to win this Sunday’s NFC title game versus the San Francisco 49ers. The average score after 10,000 simulations is 18.3 – 16.7, with the 49ers having nearly a 57 percent chance of covering the +3.5. Given how both defensive units have been nothing short of exemplary all season, it’s understandable that there is a 65.9 percent chance the total combined score stays under 40. 

Projected Leaders

Passing: Russell Wilson (SEA) 147.5 yds, 107.3 QBR | Colin Kaepernick (SF) 119.8 yds, 82.5 QBR

Rushing: Marshawn Lynch (SEA) 93.8 yds | Frank Gore (SF) 61.1 yds

Receiving: Golden Tate (SEA) 48.5 yds | Anquan Boldin (SF) 48.2 yds

What to Watch For

Beast Mode vs Frank Gore. Whichever side can stop the other team from having success on the ground wins the NFC title game. It’s as simple as that. So far this season, Lynch has 1,257 yards to go along with 12 touchdowns. He has a per-carry average of 4.2 yards. Gore is right up there with Lynch in matching his production with his 4.1 ypc, 1,128 yards and nine touchdowns.

Marshawn Lynch average stats from sims: 93.8 yds, 18.3 carries, 5.1 ypc, 0.7 TD  

Frank Gore average stats from sims: 61.1 yds, 11.1 carries, 5.1 ypc, 0.5 TD

In the simulations, turnovers had a strong correlation to which team won the game. Seattle wins 73% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers.

Did You Know?

Since 1990, teams from the same division have met in the conference championship 4 times. The road team has won 3 of them. Good news for the 49ers.

Prediction

It’s just astonishing how well these two teams match up against each other. With no fan bias either way, I will have to stick with AccuScore’s projections and go with the home team. 24-20, Seattle. 

 

Photo Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

All projection data has been provided by AccuScore. AccuScore is the leader in sports betting systems, NBA/NFL picks and handicapping previews every sport.

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Rohit Ghosh

LA Clippers beat writer
Rohit is an L.A.-based sports journalist who contributes to SB Nation's Silver Screen and Roll, AccuScore, and the Taxi Squad Show based out of Utah. He also runs his own sports blog, Metta Chronicles. Follow him on Twitter @RohitGhosh where he discusses AccuScore projection data, a variety of sports-related topics, and even some Jazz music.
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