Chargers

Jacksonville Jaguars vs San Diego Chargers: What do AccuScore simulations say?

Can SD move past Keenan?

SAN DIEGO — It’s been a week since Chargers WR Keenan Allen went down to a season-ending injury, but discussion surrounding the team can’t seem to move past the news. It’s Week 2, however, and the Chargers must re-focus as they host the Jacksonville Jaguars in their home opener. 

San Diego is listed as a 3-point favorite at the time of publication. 

It’s a matchup of 0-1 teams but looking at the slate of games, Qualcomm just might end up hosting one of the more exciting contests of the Week. The Jaguars pushed Green Bay in Week 1 before ultimately losing 27-23; the Chargers, meanwhile, blew a 17-point lead at Kansas City, losing 33-27 in OT. 

For the Chargers, all eyes will be looking for Allen’s replacement. He tore his ACL last week and there a couple of options to replace that sort of production. Rather – try to replace. Travis Benjamin joins SD after a strong season with Cleveland in 2015, with the potential to be the Charger’s No. 1 deep threat. The more realistic option, though, would be Dontrelle Inman, who had 35 receptions in 2015.

The sneaky pick? Tyrell Williams. Get to know him now before he becomes a household name. 

Despite a lack of options, expect QB Philip Rivers to have a strong performance. Jacksonville practically has no pass rush, recording just one sack against Aaron Rodgers in Week 1. Rivers should have more than enough time to find his weapons. 

Quarterback Comparison

Philip Rivers is projected to finish with close to 300 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT and a passer rating of 96.4

Blake Bortles is projected to finish with 214 passing yards, 1 TD, 1 INT and a passer rating of 96.3. 

Bortles averages  0.6 INTs per simulated matchup, compared to 0.5 for Rivers. Rivers averages 1.8 TDs per sim, compared to 1.2 for Bortles.

What do the sims say?

AccuScore simulations – to put it simply – aren’t offering much value on either side. San Diego gets the slight edge, but only because they’re the home side. The Jaguars had a strong performance against the Packers in Week 1, and that level of play shouldn’t be overlooked. 

The better pick is the UNDER on this matchup. The average score after 10,000 simulations is 22 to 21, with the slight edge to the home side. The total combined score stays UNDER 47.5 in over 62 percent of simulations, a three-star (out of four) hot trend pick. 

AccuScore is an industry leader in game projections and simulations, providing data to ESPN, Yahoo! Sports, and Wall Street Journal. 

 

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Rohit Ghosh

LA Clippers beat writer
Rohit is an L.A.-based sports journalist who contributes to SB Nation's Silver Screen and Roll, AccuScore, and the Taxi Squad Show based out of Utah. He also runs his own sports blog, Metta Chronicles. Follow him on Twitter @RohitGhosh where he discusses AccuScore projection data, a variety of sports-related topics, and even some Jazz music.
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