AccuScore has the Los Angeles Clippers as overwhelming 80.5 percent favorites to win game seven against the Golden State Warriors Saturday night. The average score after 10,000 simulations is 111-100, with the Clippers having a 60.6 percent chance of covering the -7 spread. There is a 59 percent chance the total combined score goes over 206.5. While both teams have a fairly comparable probability at a close win (4 points or less), the Clippers have more than 7 times the chance of the Warriors at a big win (10 points or more).
Looking at simulated stats, the Warriors lose due to their turnovers. On average they turned the ball over 19 times per simulated game compared to 13 for the Clippers. The Clippers also had the same margin of advantage in the rebounding category.
- The Warriors are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 7 of the Warriors’ last 9 games.
- The Warriors are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games on the road.
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of the Warriors’ last 5 games on the road.
- The Clippers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games.
- The Clippers are 17-8 SU in their last 25 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 7 of the Clippers’ last 9 games.
- The Clippers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games at home.
Stephen Curry: 23 points (3-8 3PA-3PM), 9 assists, 5 rebounds
Klay Thompson: 17 points (3-7 3PA-3PM), 3 rebounds, 2 assists
Chris Paul: 21 points, 12 assists, 5 rebounds, 4 steals
Blake Griffin: 20 points, 11 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 block
Photo Credit: USA Today
All projection data provided by AccuScore