Sports Out West

Houston Rockets vs Portland Trail Blazers: AccuScore Game 3 Preview

AccuScore has the Portland Trail Blazers as slight 54.3 percent favorites to win Game 3 of their best-of-seven series against the Houston Rockets. The average score after 10,000 simulations is 109.5-109.1, with the Rockets having a 52.7 percent chance of covering the +3 spread. While Portland has a slightly higher probability at a close win (4 points or less), both have about the same exact chance at a big win (10 points or more).  There is a 56.8 percent chance the total combined score goes over 214.5.

Projected Leaders

LaMarcus Aldridge: 26 points (46% FG), 10 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 block, 1 steal, 2 TOs

Damian Lillard: 19 points (43% FG), 6 assists, 4 rebounds, 1 steal, 3 TOs

James Harden: 26 points (42% FG), 7 assists, 5 rebounds, 4 TOs

Dwight Howard: 18 points (55% FG), 12 rebounds, 2 blocks, 2 assists, 1 steal, 3 TOs

Betting Trends

  • The Rockets are 1-6 against the spread (ATS) in their last 7 games.
  • The Rockets are 2-5 straight up (SU) in their last 7 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 9 of the Rockets’ last 11 games.
  • The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on the road.
  • The Blazers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
  • The Blazers are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of the Blazers’ last 5 games.
  • The Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games at home.

What to Watch For

LaMarcus Aldridge has been nothing short of dominant thus far in the playoffs. After finishing game one with 46 points and 18 rebounds, Aldridge lit up Houston for 43 points in game two. Unless the Rockets are able to get the ball out of Aldridge’s hands, game three will have the same results as games one and two: an easy Blazers victory. If Aldridge starts the game well, expect Houston to show some double teams. Houston’s double teams could lead to a big game by a Wesley Matthews or Nicolas Batum.

Aldridge’s shot charts from Game 1 (left) and Game 2 (right) - via ballislife.com

Aldridge’s shot charts from Game 1 (left) and Game 2 (right) – via ballislife.com

Photo Credit: Troy Taormina/USA Today Sports

All projection data provided by AccuScore

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Rohit Ghosh

LA Clippers beat writer
Rohit is an L.A.-based sports journalist who contributes to SB Nation's Silver Screen and Roll, AccuScore, and the Taxi Squad Show based out of Utah. He also runs his own sports blog, Metta Chronicles. Follow him on Twitter @RohitGhosh where he discusses AccuScore projection data, a variety of sports-related topics, and even some Jazz music.