AccuScore has the Los Angeles Clippers as slight 52.2 percent favorites to win game 3 of their best-of-seven series against the Golden State Warriors. The average score after 10,000 simulations is 106-104, with the Warriors having a 53.6 percent chance of covering the +3 spread. While the Warriors have a slightly higher chance at a close win (4 points or less), the Clippers have a fairly higher probability at getting a big win (10 points or more). Given the atmosphere expected at Oracle Arena, it’s safer to assume the game will stay close throughout. There is a 53.3 percent chance the total combined score goes under 212.
Projected Stats for Clippers Leaders
Blake Griffin: 20 points (50% FG), 10 rebounds, 3 assists
Chris Paul: 19 points (46% FG), 11 assists, 5 rebounds
Jamal Crawford: 14 points (41% FG), 3 assists
Projected Stats for Warriors Leaders
Stephen Curry: 24 points (3-7 three-pointers), 9 assists, 4 rebounds
David Lee: 16 points (51% FG), 10 rebounds, 1 steal
Klay Thompson: 16 points (42%), 3 rebounds, 1 steal
- The OVER is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings.
- The OVER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Golden State.
- Home team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings.
- Clippers are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Golden State.
What to Watch For
The Clippers are in the top third of the league in forcing turnovers. The Warriors committed 26 turnovers in game 2, which led to 27 points off turnovers for the Clippers. The Warriors are in the bottom third of the league in turnovers per offensive play. Turnovers played a key role in AccuScore’s simulations of game 3 – a little over 50 percent of simulated winners won the turnover battle. Golden State averaged 3 turnovers more than the Clippers in the simulations.
Photo Credit: Rocky Widner/Getty Images
All projection data provided by AccuScore