AccuScore has the Los Angeles Clippers as solid 85.5 percent favorites to win Wednesday night against the visiting Portland Trail Blazers. The average score after 10,000 simulations is 118-105, with the Clippers having a 57.2 percent chance of covering the -9 spread. Given the Blazers and Clippers are the two highest scoring teams in the league, respectively, it makes sense that there is a 58.4 percent chance the total score goes over 217.
While the Clippers have just two times the probability of getting a close win (4 points or less) compared to the Blazers, the big win (10 points or more) potential for Los Angeles is nearly 15 times that of Portland (58.2% to 4.6%).
LaMarcus Aldridge: 24 points (43% FG), 11 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 block
Damian Lillard: 19 points (41% FG, 2 3PM), 7 assists, 4 rebounds, 4 turnovers
Nicolas Batum: 14 points (43% FG), 7 rebounds, 5 assists
Blake Griffin: 25 points (56% FG), 12 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 turnovers
Chris Paul: 14 points (48% FG), 8 assists, 3 steals, 2 turnovers
Jamal Crawford: 24 points (42% FG, 3 3PM), 3 assists, 2 rebounds
DeAndre Jordan: 11 points (63% FG), 14 rebounds, 3 blocks
What to Watch for
Aldridge vs Griffin. Hoops fans get the pleasure of watching two of the best power forwards go at it on Wednesday night at Staples Center. In their nine head-to-head games, Griffin is just 3-6 despite putting up better numbers. Griffin has averaged 20.9 points (51% FG), 11.4 rebounds and 4.4 assists per game, while Aldridge has put up 18.6 points , 7.6 rebounds and 2.9 assists per game. While the Chris Paul-Damian Lillard matchup may end up as the more exciting battle to watch, whoever wins the battle down low will ultimately get their team a victory.
It’s the last game before All-Star break for both teams – I would be very surprised if either team won in blowout fashion. I expect it to stay close throughout, but have to give the Clippers the advantage as the home team. With the attention on Griffin vs Aldridge and Paul vs Lillard, I expect DeAndre to be the x-factor with his rebounding. 108-102, LAC.
All projection data provided by AccuScore.
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Photo Credit: NBA.com
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